← Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/25/2024
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/25/2024
decks
5
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-7-3
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
50.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1348
· median 1335
· range 1233–1582
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1202
Q3 1392
1652
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
